Civil War Sentiment Getting Scary Real Polling Harris vs Trump w/ Rasmussen Reports Mark Mitchell

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Summary

âž¡ The text discusses the importance and limitations of polls in understanding public opinion, especially in the context of elections. It also highlights the role of a company, Masterpiece, in removing toxins from the body. The text introduces a conversation with Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen Reports, a polling organization, discussing the increasing divisiveness among Americans and the potential for civil war. Lastly, it promotes Miles Franklin, a company offering competitive prices on precious metals as a form of financial protection.
âž¡ The text discusses the potential bias in polling, suggesting that some pollsters may manipulate data or be influenced by external pressures to present certain outcomes. It also highlights the importance of asking critical questions and maintaining objectivity in polling. The author believes that despite potential inaccuracies, polls are necessary to gauge public opinion and prevent manipulation of election results. The text also emphasizes the need for reaching a diverse range of people for accurate polling.
âž¡ The article discusses the political climate in the U.S., focusing on Kamala Harris’s performance and public perception. It highlights the divisive nature of politics, with people increasingly viewing opposing parties as enemies. The article also mentions a poll suggesting a potential civil war and the rise of alternative news sources. Lastly, it introduces a product, inhale oxygenated water, which claims to boost athletic endurance.
âž¡ The article discusses a debate where the author believes Trump didn’t perform his best but didn’t need to, while his opponent won but didn’t sway many independent voters. The author also mentions a growing divide between Biden supporters and Trump supporters, with each group deeply invested in their candidate. The author suggests this divide is deeper than party lines and may be leading towards a civil war-like situation. The author calls for true leaders to step up and diffuse the situation.
âž¡ The speaker discusses the current political climate, highlighting the lack of action from both Democrats and Republicans. They mention Elon Musk’s positive influence and criticize the media for not adequately covering important issues. They also discuss public opinion on topics like abortion and reparations, emphasizing that politicians are not effectively using this data to guide their actions. The speaker concludes by stressing the need for understanding and unity among different groups to avoid further division.
âž¡ The speaker believes that their role is to solve problems related to public opinion, and they express concern about divisive issues being pushed in the media. They discuss the results of a poll in Pennsylvania, which showed conflicting views on gender issues and medical treatments for minors. The speaker also mentions their YouTube channel and Twitter account where they share more detailed poll results and information. They conclude by expressing their commitment to providing accurate information and thanking their audience for their support.

Transcript

If this month ABC’s Harris plus four and next month it’s Harris plus two, but then Reuters has Harris plus six, like, what are you going to report on? You’re going to say, well, the polls are moving in Harris’s direction when maybe they didn’t, or maybe it was just statistical noise. So that’s a long way of saying you can’t trust polls. But I also think you have to have polls, because if without them, then you’re just going to get your election stolen, like in the Venezuela. And without them, how can you anchor the Overton window against things like the fact that the country has been shifting gradually on all these issues and rapidly on some.

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It removes graphene oxide, it removes aluminum, it removes microplastics and all sorts of toxins. You can try yours today as well by going to Sarah westall.com under shop or with the link below. Welcome to business game changers. I’m Sarah Westall. I have Mark Mitchell coming from Rasafson reports. I’ve been wanting to get him on for a while and I guess we’ve been having some email issues, so I’m so glad he’s here. And we got to dive into some really good issues and some more meta thinking on the data. And that’s why I like what he does, because he’s the only, they’re the only polling organization that’ll ask the hard questions and then they have integrity trying to get you the numbers as close to what reality is.

And you might not like the reality, but at least that gives you information. And that’s what I want, is data. And I the hard questions gives me a better idea of what is going on from a globalist standpoint, what’s going on from some of these other agendas outside of the average Us Americans control. Or it could be in our control if we knew and we fought back against it. But it’s, it’s a gen, is coming from outward or downward or from different directions, not what’s best for us. And that data tells me where they’re at. And he’s not afraid to ask the questions.

That’s the most important thing. And then, well, not afraid to ask questions. And then following it up with making sure that the data that you get is as good as you can possibly get so you can see where people really are mentally at. And it’s fantastic. And so we’re going to talk about all these things. We’re going to talk, unfortunately, about civil war and the fact that we are Americans are becoming more and more divisive and really moving toward this mental, scary place where a civil war could happen because people are so angry with each other.

And we have to figure that out, and we talk about what that is, what’s causing that. And through the numbers, we’re looking at it. So this is a fantastic conversation that I have with them. Before I get into this, I want to remind you about Miles Franklin and the fact that if you use Miles Franklin, you’ll get a private price list. Go to their website, you’ll see certain numbers because they’re all competitive with, you know, they’re competing with each other. If you tell them that Sarah sent you, he’ll give you a private price list that’s better than the competitors out there.

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Okay, let’s get into my really great conversation with Mark Mitchell, the head of Rasmussen reports. Hi, Mark. Welcome to the program. I’m so happy to be here. We had a really great talk before this. I can’t wait to cover a lot of this stuff because usually everybody just wants to know what’s Trump’s margin. And it’s like there’s more to public opinion than election prediction for sure. Yes, there is. And I’ve been wanting to have you on my show for a while. We just couldn’t get the email. So I’m so glad you’re here. I want to talk about first, how the heck did Rasmussen, who is a very respected and still very respected polling organization, get typecast as a far right organization? I think the information that we have is dangerous to people who are in power right now.

And unfortunately, in my opinion, if you call yourself a journalist and you aren’t dangerous because of that, right now, you’re probably nothing doing your job correctly. And listen, they have nobody but themselves to blame. Like, public opinion used to be just like an interesting thing that people put in page ten of the newspaper article. It’s like, who likes vanilla ice cream more than chocolate or something like that. Really. I mean, election predictions always kind of been a thing, but it’s never been this crazy thing that gets tens of millions of dollars of design work dumped into it.

And so we used to be on tv all the time. We used to be on Fox News when people would want to know, are more people spending money on Christmas this year and stuff like that. And we were good at election prediction as well. But what happened is it just got such this crazy traffic driver because the Internet, a lot of these companies took election prediction in house with the added benefit of now that you own your own pollster, you can kind of influence the results potentially. And I think thats happening in a very major way.

But in my opinion, the unfortunate ramification is people arent really talking about what Americans think anymore. And thats important and were one of the last people doing it. And because now it looks like media organizations are more interested in telling Americans what to think instead of reporting on it. And what that’s given them is just free reign to move the Overton window wherever the heck they want. And we hope that there’s more focus on it now because we’re one of the last independent holdouts. If our election predictions are inaccurate, we cease to exist because we’re not attached to a major media organization.

It’s literally like five of us in a really small budget and yet somehow we continue to be able to put out more polling than anybody else and stay accurate. And listen, am I going to tell you we’re going to nail every election within 0.1 points? No, it’s impossible. And in fact, if you’re following somebody that has been able to do that, I would say that you should question how much influence they’re putting into the numbers. Because just statistically speaking, if all of my polls are two to 3% margin of error, I’m going to be off by a point all the time.

And then it really comes down to there’s only so much you can predict. And that’s not the business I’m in, is calling out exactly what’s going to happen in two months. But I’m here to tell people, as of the numbers right now, Trump’s doing better than he’s ever done in the last ten years. And so it looks like he’s the favorite in our opinion. We’ll have new swing state data out the next day or two. But after this election, regardless of who wins, there’s all these questions that we focus on that nobody else does. How come the Department of Justice got weaponized? And do voters care about that? Do voters care about all the election integrity issues that they’re told not to? Because it’s a big lie.

Nobody else has asked those questions. Nobody else has asked about vaccine safety. And so that’s why I think we’re far right for sure, just because we think that Americans should know the truth. And if, listen, if it’s uncomfortable that we put a poll out that shows that Hillary Clinton isn’t winning by 15 points, we’re going to get attacked for it. Well, we’re trying to be accurate. And I think that if you can’t be an objective thinker about your past mistakes and try and correct them, how are you going to put out a good product? And just by doing that, it makes us dangerous.

Well, and being accurate and actually asking the questions suddenly turns you into a far right nut job. Right? I mean, what is wrong with asking the questions that people are really, we should be asking? Are vaccines safe? How can that possibly be a negative question? Is Donald Trump winning for real? I mean, really asking these questions? And the question is, are they using the polls, and I don’t know the answer to this, are they using the polls to swing public opinion and creating the results that they want to convince people to think a certain way? Yes, and it’s also very complex.

But I will say we have our haters. ABC News hates us, Washington Post hates us. They have fact checkers dedicated to academia, hates us. Annenberg folks reaching out to us to try and poke holes in our stuff, but they could shut us down instantly by just doing their jobs, like, period, end of story. Ask some uncomfortable questions about the pharmaceutical industry and we’ll stop calling on it. Then we’ve lost traffic. So, I mean, it really is that simple. But now, put yourself in the shoes of some of these people. You are an ABC pollster, you work for ABC, you’re owned by Disney, and Disney’s destroying its own business for ideological reasons.

And you only have so much budget to go into the field and the data comes back noisy. And I can see, looking at their position, how they might have pressure from the top to expect a certain outcome. And just that pressure creates some confirmation bias because you might get yelled at your boss if you show Trump up, you might not if you don’t. And just there alone is a reason why the polling industry, as it is today, probably has a leftward slant, because the error always goes basically one way. I mean, we were two points to the left in 2022, like as a far right pollster, and we were still being attacked.

So it’s a question of how far left you are, really. But then it’s also very easy as a pollster to play around with a million different. There’s no amount of transparency that will convince me that any pollster is 100% being honest because they could even throw away data points as they collect them. They can even cultivate a data source that they like that they think matches the electorate, and they’re just wrong because they watch CNN all day and that’s their frame of reference. So you like, that’s literally what I think is happening with ABC’s Ipsos panel.

They use the Ipsos panel. It’s only 60,000 Americans, and their independents are going for Kamala Harris right now, whereas mine are going for Trump. They put that data set together, whereas I’m trying to reach all of America so they can do that. And there are instances where we’ve absolutely caught them. The very first poll that got put out after Kamala Harris got selected was Reuters Ipsos, and they put Kamala Harris out as a plus two and had Biden, I think, down one the week before that. But they shifted their party weightings three points more favorable Democrat in that week.

So all the Kamala Harris pickup was due to that shift in party weightings, like literally all of it. And then sometimes you have situations where the pollster is not to blame at all but the media running with it is absolutely, this Fairleigh Dickinson poll was a push poll that they put it out as an experiment to show that racial and equity and gender based questions can swing how people respond. They showed a tight race and then asked some race questions and then showed Trump down seven. The hill ran with the headline Trump’s down seven. You know what I mean? And then there’s also, like, the polls do swing.

There’s not a lot of polls. Most pollsters are only putting out polls every month. We’re actually the only people putting out daily data right now. And so people can see in our numbers that the race really hasn’t swung that much at all. But it’s like if this month ABC’s Harris plus four and next month it’s Harris plus two, but then Reuters has Harris plus six. What are you going to report on? You’re going to say, well, the polls are moving in Harris’s direction when maybe they didn’t, or maybe it was just statistical noise. So that’s a long way of saying you can’t trust polls.

But I also think you have to have polls because if without them, then you’re just going to get your election stolen like in the Venezuela. And without them, how can you anchor the Overton window against things like the fact that the country has been shifting gradually on all these issues and rapidly on some, like reparations, like massive leftward shift on reparations in the last four years? Yep, coming off from democrats, we’re the only ones measuring that. Well, that’s important. And asking all those questions are important. And so one of your philosophies, and tell me if I’m wrong, this is what I heard, is that you’re looking for people from all different, because you can’t do a good poll unless you truly get people from all different spheres.

The days of reaching all Americans are over. Americans have been burned by scam artists. Americans don’t have as many landline phones as they did. And our philosophy has been to, instead of leaning into new sources that are very limited and suspect, like building your own proprietary panel, hold on to what we can as much as possible. So I’m still reaching, I think, in my opinion, over a million Americans, whenas most of the biggest proprietary panels, I don’t even think have a 10th of that. I think that’s one of our benefits and it’s why I can still reach Trump supporters.

And everybody says that they can’t. But ultimately what it comes back to is that feedback loop of saying, well, gee, we missed, folks. How much should we correct by or should we not correct at all? And I think I’m doing that in a way that most others aren’t. And unfortunately, where most objective people trying to do good at their job should be more aggressive. And some of them are doing it. Some of them aren’t like the New York Times right now I do not think is cooking their numbers, but I do think that ABC morning consult, some of them are, maybe they’re just really bad at their jobs and doing it unintentionally.

I don’t know. Well, aren’t they probably as they realize that you’re more accurate that they would actually secretly look at you and what youre doing? I mean, lets be honest. I think that happens all the time, which is one of the crazy things. Your viewers might not know this. We got thrown out. So 538 is owned by ABC who hates us and it was founded by Nate Silver. They fired Nate Silver, put a new guy who is definitely an ideologue and two months later they came for our scalp because ostensibly transparency, but I think that was a canard because they clearly had issues with just the people we talked to.

Just the fact that I went on war room was enough to get those guys angry about it. But my point is that we have ways that we’re polling cheaper than any other people. And because of that, I can put out a ridiculous amount of data. I’ve polled like four or five times more than the New York Times has this cycle and their budget is probably ten times bigger than me. So even if you think I have a right or left bias, I’m putting out numbers for you to look at. I’m the only person that can show a daily chart of where the race has been at every point in the last two months.

And so I guarantee you these people are getting a data set back and saying, oh, let’s move to the right, let’s move to the left. What is Rasmussen’s daily tracker show and whatever? I mean, I think our viewers want to see that data. Guess it’s giving away free competitive information, too. I guess it’s a byproduct. But like, listen, what 538 does is adjust data for what they say are accuracy issues and bias issues. So even if they think we’re biased, they should include us in their aggregate because we put out more data than anybody else and they don’t because they just don’t want somebody in there messing up the narratives.

And they’ve, in my opinion, been trying as hard as possible to paint a pro Kamala Harris momentum narrative. And I just. I don’t see it. Yeah, she’s better than Biden for sure. When she came into the race, the race got two or three points tighter, but it’s been there. And we even saw in our daily numbers, a post debate jump for her. It was like a half a point, and it lasted three days. That’s it. Moving on. Well, some of the circles I run in are people that I talk to think that. And this is where you’re going to correct.

Some people, I think, is they think that Kamala Harris is so bad that she’s only pulling it, like, 15%. And she’s. I mean, I’m hearing all these kind of crazy things, and I’m like, I don’t think so, guys. I think you’re wrong. What? There. Are they wrong? I mean, Kamala Harris is. It’s. It’s a closer race than people realize in the conservative circles. Yeah, this is a very big problem in our country. People say our country’s divided. I think the word is divisive. And I think we’re. Luckily, I think we’re backing away from peak echo chamber in a way that was probably facilitated by Elon Musk.

But there has been a separation, a self separation of people. People have stopped talking about politics because they’re going to offend somebody. People have moved states. People are consuming alternative news sources. And so there’s a less alignment on the mainstream narratives. And alongside that, we’ve seen increasingly disturbing trends. The country is more likely than ever before to think a civil war is likely in the next five years. I think the last time we measured it was up to 42%. And also, this is coming out of our big swing state poll. It’s a little bit of a tease.

The numbers are going to be released maybe later today or tomorrow. But we have Pennsylvania back. Can’t tell you what the margin is, folks. Sorry. But we asked this question, which is, who’s America’s biggest enemy today? And we give a choice of, like, Iran, Russia, China, the Democrats, and the Republican Party. And in the past, the answer has always been China, then Russia, and then the Democrats, then the Republicans. Right now, the number one enemy, according to Pennsylvania swing state voters, is the Democrats. And the Republicans aren’t far behind, but China’s beating. But my point is that not what the absolute results are, but that the results are flipping in a way that is troubling.

And it’s because people are very dug in on what they want and where they place their trust and I think we’re at peak, like, personal investment in trust. And so you do see a lot of these validation seeking behaviors. Like, I see it from the right and from the left. If I put data out that’s uncomfortable to the right, like, hey, Joe Biden’s job approval ratings higher than you think. How can, who are these people? How can it not be 20? Well, he got more votes than any president in history. Like, you got to understand that.

And it is true. He did. And we can talk about election irregularities. The right doesn’t like to acknowledge this. I’m not saying that there weren’t election irregularities. I think they were the tune of probably hundreds of thousands of votes. But people got Trump deranged. People thought he was a russian asset. People watch CNN and MSNBC and believe that stuff. People are worried about the Supreme Court. Biden gets voters, and Harris is getting a lot of those voters. Two, they exist. And the very fact that Trump’s leading right now in a way that he never has before means a ton of them changed their minds.

Millions, probably tens of millions. The question all comes down to, like, how much? And that’s really hard for a pollster to do. We think we’re trying to do our best job possible and we’re also in the prediction of what could be or should be, not what could be, right. So just in Pennsylvania, I have a ton of reasons why I think my results are probably left or than they will be. But I’m not in this to like, predict things that one side think might happen. Like Scott Pressler’s in Pennsylvania registering people by the millions. Well, the Democrats are doing stuff too, right? And they’ve had a history of doing it very well.

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I don’t think. What do you think of that? I’ll just say that I think it’s a nice byproduct. And again, I’m not saying that all of the poll book cooking is intentional. I think some of it is. I think some of its confirmation bias. Like I said, I think they’re a little, this is me opinion. Like, I’m trying to learn every day. I came from outside the industry. I’m learning a lot. I’m learning, I see through a lot of this stuff very patently other stuff. It’s a learning experience. We are in untrodden ground right now, that’s for sure.

I think they’re very hand to mouth and I think they’re trying to maintain supremacy over the nightly news cycle. And I think they were very effective in August at building momentum for her. All the two or three points she gained were in August, but in our number, she hit a ceiling, like, literally the day after the DNC. And so the problem is, is that after the DNC, a week after the DNC, New York Times comes out and agrees with us that show that she’s losing the national popular vote. That’s horrifying. Nate Silver came out and said that she only had like a 35% probability of winning.

That’s like Democrat favorable prediction sources telling her she’s gonna lose. And it probably crippled them in a way that I thought what they could have had is extend that lead, that she had that momentum going into the debate, do a little bit better in the debate and say, look, Trump’s just not up to it. We have the momentum. And now it’s like, going into the debate is like our campaign’s in shamble. So I think they’re just trying to do the best with what they got. They can only exert some influence. I think that there has been very selective timing of certain favorable and certain unfavorable polling that they can’t, they can control.

And I think some of that’s been dropped. But between now and then, I think her internal numbers probably look like mine. I’ve heard that my internal numbers look like Trump’s campaign. And if that’s true, they need to move the needle and they need to do it in 45 days. And so they are desperately looking for positive headlines or for Trump to make a mistake. I’ll tell you, the Taylor Swift thing didn’t really move the numbers. So they need something bigger than that or they need to out, they either need to out election year, the Republicans, which is very possible they did it in 2020, in my opinion, or they need a very big game changer on a national stage.

Like what would have happened, not accusing anybody, but like what would have happened if Trump got shot, right. Which is why didn’t resigns is another really big one that would probably give the win to the Democrats. So they still have cards to play for sure. Well, and I’m thinking then if Harris becomes president for a little bit, it gives her a little bit of a edge there. If they will only cycle for three weeks at a minimum in a way that the Republicans have no way to combat. Yeah, it’s going to be interesting. And you had a poll showing that, I want to get back to the civil war idea, but you had a poll showing that Harris actually won the debate, that the majority of the people thought that.

And I kind of came out and I said, I think she kind of won, too because she was so low. Like, this is my philosophy on it was that she was, her views were people viewed her so dumb. Like she was dumb. And she, the fact that she came out is not dumb in the. People can still think she’s dumb, but not in the way she handled herself. She didn’t look dumb. The ABC fixed, you know, we’re questioning Trump and not her, but we know that they do stuff like that. So the whole thing. But people don’t like it.

They hate hearing that. Yeah. My initial take before the numbers came back was that the debate was awash. I don’t think the Trump people needed Trump to win. I thought that Trump had a chance of knocking her out and he took it and he didn’t do it. So in that way, he lost. And then it’s like, okay, well, we probably have to do the polling to really see, like, how viewers perceived what happened. And there were some surprises here. So she won 48 to â‚©34, the debate. But then, like, people on the right would say, well, all she did was lie.

Okay, but when we asked who lied more and people said Donald Trump by a point, 45 to 46. So a tie, right? And then you’re like, well, clearly the moderators were super biased and declown themselves, and so everybody’s going to see through it. And the truth is they didn’t 47%. They only got a 22% excellent, but 47% rated them excellent or good, and 49% said fair or poor. And so its like not a strong signal. Its like, basically, yeah, they said that she won. But when you get down to it, all this other stuff was relatively split.

They approve by 50%, approve to 38% disprove of Trump not doing another debate. And so there was not a lot of strong stuff that stood out to me, except for this. In my opinion, a certain group of people treated that as some kind of public humiliation theater or some type of, like, we asked, how much of the debate did you watch? And the people who said they watched, most who watched a lot were Joe Bidens strong approvers, 80% watched a lot of it. It was only like mid forties for everybody else. And then did you, how did you rate the job that the debate moderators did? 90% of them said excellent or good.

So they’re like, yeah, get them, get them. Like, that’s what, that’s what I took out of the debate. Right. So in the grand scheme of things, it looks like, yeah, people said, okay, yeah, she won. Not Trump’s best night, but Trump didn’t need his best night, and she did. And I don’t think she really got it because it didn’t move the numbers. And what, in my opinion, she lost was an ability to speak to independents because she was not, she was talking about the hoaxes. And we’ve done the polling, the independents do not believe the hoaxes.

It’s only like about one in three of them. Right. So she’s saying things that aren’t resonating with independence. She’s saying things that resonate with her base. One could speculate why she did that. I think she was trying to convince her base, who were buying supporters, to vote for her. And I don’t know if they needed convincing. Again, it didn’t really change the numbers. Well, if they do another debate, Trump’s going to be ready and he’s going to change. I actually think having a debate early where you figure out what they’re going to do and how they’re going to go after it, because she’s probably not going to change that much.

I think that works in his favor because now we can, you know, I coached a lot of sports. I’m like, hmm, yeah, I think that works in your favor because now you come out closer to the election and just, you can destroy them. I think. I think that works in his favor. But I guess, like, it depends on what the numbers say, because what Trump would be doing, in my opinion, is like rolling the dice again for another knockout blow. And maybe he needs to, maybe he doesn’t. What she needed to do was check the box.

And she checked the box, but she checked the box with the media help. Right. And trump let her check the box. But I think everybody expected them, him to take that chance. So it’s like, yeah, you know, it’s like everybody locked horns and nothing really came out of it. Yeah, well, but let’s get to the civil war thing, because the locking horns is where we’re at. And what you saw in your numbers is the people that already liked her, liked her. I mean, nobody’s changing course, and we’re just, our heels are setting in even deeper. RFK moving to the Trump camp is a very interesting development.

And what has that done to the numbers? And then when we talked before, and I think this is important. I think this is probably the most important. I view it as. And you seem to, is viewing things as who has integrity and who is authentic and who’s not. And it’s almost like two different camps right now. Yeah. In my opinion, some people will ask, why are you a pollster? What were your qualifications? And when I say it was all like, the people who did this before me knew me personally and knew that I had integrity. And that’s basically all you need because it’s like high school math and statistics 101, right? And a little bit of political knowledge, but it’s like, I’m working with the data all day long, and I can do whatever I want with it.

Right. And at the end of the day, people do have to trust the numbers. But it’s like, every time I see a troll on Twitter take an attack at us, it’s always like this. There’s nothing like, hey, I pulled this number. You did out. Why’d you do that? That’s bad. Why’d you make that bad decision? It’s always just like, oh, you’re Trump’s liar or something like that. Or they say, how could you say that on Twitter? It shows your bias. So, like, listen, if there’s a really great restaurant that makes the best steak ever, and I don’t care what the bias of the chef is, because the chef’s trying to give me the best steak ever.

And so if you don’t understand that everybody has biases, including some of the bipartisan people in our company, but we have to keep it out of our work to do our job. Well, if you can’t understand that by proving it, by saying that our numbers have to be false because we’ve said a conservative thing or because you’ve called us a liar with no evidence, it showed me you have no integrity. Like you literally aren’t objectively thinking and are literally saying things that are stupid on the Internet. And that’s all I see right now. Those are the attacks I get.

And again, I think there’s some of that on the right, too. But nobody wants to objectively process facts. They want to be told a warm, comfy blanket, and I don’t give a warm, comfy blanket to anybody. And I will say, because my content’s doing better, I think that there are more free thinking, objective people on the right now for sure, that don’t want me to lie to them. That’s why I have viewers growing rapidly. But there is something deep and dark that transcends political party right now. The biggest signal of anywhere in the crosstabs is always from Biden approval more than party.

So it’s something deeper than Republican or Democrat. All of the Biden strong approvers are very invested in government, in being right in the media, and in my opinion, probably something like conformity or unity or everybody doing what I say or me getting it right. And on the right, it’s like mistrust of authority. Don’t trust the Republicans. Don’t trust government. Run from COVID gravitating towards Trump because he’s proven and they’ve got loyalty in him in a way that they don’t have for literally any other Republican. They had a lot of favorability and loyalty. And DeSantis, until DeSantis challenged Trump, then it just disappeared.

And so that’s the other side. And just so it happens, it aligns very closely with religious signals. So atheists very strongly support Kamala Harris more than even Democrats do. And Trump in this Pennsylvania poll is winning by almost 40 points among evangelicals. So there’s this aspect of people really investing in something that is not party. It’s not quite religion. It’s being right and winning maybe right. Like, I don’t even know what to call it and how to test for it. And I’ve been asking everybody for input. What’s the one thing I can test on that will perfectly separate the people who the right is afraid of and the people who left is vice versa? That’s driving the civil war signal.

That’s driving the Democrats or enemy signal. I should be able to ask a question that gets 100% of these people and 0% of these people and vice versa. I haven’t found it yet. Closest thing is Biden approval, because that’s what you talk about. The closest thing is Biden approval, which sounds so silly. It is. I know it sounds, yeah. The fact that that would be, but when you talked about the civil war, the going from China and Russia and Iran, how that flipped to Democrat and Republican, that’s a scary mindset change that does show that we could be closer to a civil war kind of situation.

And we need true leaders to step up and say we, and diffuse this. Really? I mean, they should be looking at your information and going, we need to step up and be true leaders here and defuse this situation. That’s a good thread of conversation, for sure. It needs diffusal. Where will that come from? In my opinion, Elon Musk did something very important for our nation that is helping defuse the situation. Unfortunately, the left hasn’t realized or acknowledged it or is fully taking advantage of it. Okay. Because I’m offering discussion. Anybody can come to my Twitter feed and I’ll chat with you if you’re in good faith.

You want to know about the way we do things. It’s just like mostly logical fallacies and attacks. And then there’s the media. And the media could start doing their job. And some of them have, like, CNN did a really good debate, in my opinion. And whoever does the next debate, if we have one, has amazing opportunity to contract themselves with ABC and get a ton of support and viewership. And I don’t think anybody’s going to do that. That’s crazy. Even if they have a Fox News debate, Fox News is probably going to help them throw it against Trump.

Right. Any one of them at any point in time, could start investigating any of these issues that have caused the division. Like, yeah, go investigate Pfizer. Go to the southern border, Wall Street Journal. Why haven’t you done that yet? Why isn’t anybody, not a single news media organization, come to us about our vaccine polling? Not a single one has. And then the Democrat party is absolutely, it looks like it’s invested in to continue this. Look at her words at the debate. Those words were calculated to increase division, and I don’t know why. And then where are the Republicans? The Republicans aren’t even on the playing field.

I’ve given them the polling they need to change opinions about abortion. Nobody’s come to us. Nobody’s using our polling literally. We polled on abortion over the last six and twelve months. The country is pro choice, 53% to 37%. Only 15% of the country wants abortions after six months. Only 27% wants abortion after three months. Even the Joe Biden strong approvers that wanted to put a half of Joe Biden’s strong approvers wanted to put the unvaccinated into camps and take their children away. Even they, less than half of them want abortion after three months. And so the data exists to redefine that argument.

And I don’t even care where anybody sits on this issue. I’m just saying the Republicans, for instance, the government shutdown, like close to 80% of Republicans want a limited government shutdown until spending cuts are achieved. I think it was 54% of independents. So Republicans have the back, the strong backing of Republicans and independents and they’re, they’re not going to do it. Like, they’re just not going well, but. Okay, but see, that does give credence to the fact that people feel the government doesn’t listen to them. Okay. Oh, it doesn’t? Right. Yeah, that’s, I mean, that’s why I exist.

Yes. It’s because you, you vote for somebody, they go to DC, they’re influenced by a ton of outside interests. What’s keeping them focused on your interests? In my opinion, there are only maybe three or four things. Let’s just say five things. There’s five things that should keep a politician in DC focused on your interests. One of them is because their religion tells them to. One of them is because they have integrity and they’re trying to do their job. One of them is because they should be afraid of the media. One of them is because they’re afraid of getting voted out.

And one of them is because of pollsters. Right. So we’re doing our jobs well, but that’s what they need to look at this. And by the way, I spoke at the Minnesota Capitol and I used your stats to talk about abortion. And I was telling, and I was telling them that the people, they don’t even know what their legislators are doing. And if they knew, they wouldn’t be supporting it. I think it’s an ignorance issue. They do not understand who they’re voting for, what they’re voting for, honestly. Because the people. Yeah, because if they knew, because they don’t support the legislation.

The vast majority of the people do not support this legislation. So why are they still voting for them? And so it’s this weird thing going on. They’re either prey to the gaslighting and like, I don’t think there’s any. Again, there’s no one answer and there’s no way for me to exactly describe it all with polling, many of them are listening to gaslighting. Like, there’s a very strong overlap between CNN and MSNBC watchers and people who think abortion is the number one issue, period. So they’re listening to the gaslighting or they’re invested in an ideology. I think that’s a big one.

And I don’t mean like, hey, I’m a liberal. It’s more like, these are my people, right? So they’ve chosen a side, and their side is telling them something, and they feel comfortable reinforcing what their side wants, or they’re being misled, or they don’t understand, or they’re being afraid of boogeymen. Listen, if you’re strongly pro choice and you want full abortion, I’m gonna tell you to your right, to your face, you should feel fine, because there’s zero chance that the Republicans take all abortion away. I don’t think they want to, but even if they did, they lack the capability, the unity of message.

They are not going to be able to do it. So if you’re voting for Harris because you’re afraid the Republicans are going to take abortion away, like, find a different pet issue. It’s not even on there currently. It’s not even on their platform. Because the majority of the people, based on your numbers, are for allowing pro choice up to a certain point, and then they’re against it. And part of their brain tells them they think project 2025 probably has something in there about it in five years, and they can’t let the, you know, I’m just saying.

Yes. Yeah. And so that’s why your polling is so important. I actually been following you, like, over the last couple of years. I’m always looking at your stuff, and I think people need to, because you need people you can trust that are actually trying to do their job well so you can see where the country’s at. Because otherwise we get. And that’s why you’re so important. Otherwise, we will get put into these, these vacuums, and then we think that everybody thinks the same way as us, and they don’t. We need to understand where people are at, and we got to live together on this planet.

Yeah. Right. I can’t solve that problem. But what I can do is give the information to the people to tell them, hey, here’s stuff you would use if you are interested in being effective with public opinion. And again, like, maybe people are subscribing in Capitol Hill and looking at this stuff. I’m trying to rapidly pull up my reparation stuff and like, okay, it’s not really important. We’re in the news cycle right now, but it is a pretty clear example of the Overton window moving strongly left in a way that Republicans had absolutely no hand in abating it.

So back in 2018, should us taxpayers pay reparations to black Americans who can prove they are descended from slaves? 17% of Americans said yes, 70% no, 32% of Democrats said yes. And let me see if I could find the most recent one. I think it was a majority. So it’s way more meaningful. It’s significantly more. It’s like Republicans didn’t really move, but the numbers moved overall. Here it is. I have it. So what was the number? 17%. So this number is 32%. And it was in 2024. So over a six year period, Americans went from 17% reparation supporting to combined total of 37%.

Say, state or national reparation program should exist. 57% of Democrats. Wow. Yeah. It’s really shift, and that’s how the change is. The momentum of the change is really important to look at. When it wasn’t even in the news. Like, there were a few stories about stuff going on in California, but it wasn’t even, like, there was no major reparations program that was on every newspaper. There was no big fight between Republicans and Democrats. There wasn’t a big supreme Court case or anything like that. But for some reason, in six years, the number of Democrats that supported reparations doubled.

Almost doubled. Like, why? Yeah, it’s. That’s exactly right. We need to be. What did Republicans do to stop it? Nothing. So. Well, and the other thing is, we have to figure out how to diffuse these things without it turning into a black and white war or a gender war, or we’re having gender wars right now. It’s like, what the heck? Why do we have to have this gender war? All these extremes are coming out and like, well, why can’t everybody flourish? Like, am I just in this camp all by myself? And I know I’m not, but I mean, that’s, if you’re a Christian, you want everyone to flourish.

If you’re supposedly on the left, you should want everyone to flourish. I mean, isn’t that what we’re supposed? But what happened to that message? I want to try. I feel like I was put on this earth to solve these problems from public opinion. And I’m actually kind of happy the media is failing on it, because, like, listen, we should. Our job, my job should be boring and easy. I should just be on spreadsheets all day. But there are, in my opinion, they are forcing wedge issues. I don’t know who, I don’t know why I can conjecture.

Right reparations is a wedge issue. If you move the left farther left on reparations, the right’s going to dig in and fight you because they think that it’s objectively the wrong thing to do. If you dig in on minor trans surgeries, the right is going to fight you because they think it’s the wrong thing to do. And I say fight nonviolently. We can conjecture also on where the violence would come from first. But again, I’ll tease these swing state polls coming out. It is so packed with amazing crosstabs. We asked back to back which candidate values most closely reflect you on gender issues.

And Pennsylvania was like tied. The very next question was, do you agree or disagree that there are only two genders? Strong majority of american of Pennsylvania voters agree that there are only two genders. Then we asked, do you support entrancing the kids HRT and minor surgery? Less than a quarter supported. So it’s like, how can you support that? But go ahead. The very next question, oh, yeah, Kamala Harris, you know, has my gender values. And then you just proved yourself a liar. One question later and he didn’t even, like, hang up the phone, you know what I mean? So it’s wild because that’s a wedge issue and people are like deluded about it, literally deluded.

And I do think that there’s intention behind it. And again, maybe you got to watch Mike Benz to know why, but it’s that intention and not, this is where the true leaders need to come in, start to diffuse those wedge issues, these lesser issues causing these major civil war trigger points. And we got to stop that. But thank you so much. Where can people follow you? I had an absolute blast. I have a YouTube channel where we go into, I’ll put this up, but I love getting to talk about this stuff because I normally don’t get to, I put YouTube videos out.

They’re like ten to 15 minutes, but just deep enough to go into the crosstab. So you actually see the polling, a couple of videos a week. And also our Twitter account is really awesome. Rasmussen poll. We were ranked number 42 on the government’s list of misinformation spreaders because we actually care about election integrity and post, you know, not the crackpot stuff, but there’s a lot of stuff coming out of official investigations and real journalists being done by some people. So you’ll find that there. And, you know, the latest releases of all our polling and the daily stuff, the daily Tracker.

If you think it’s like, oh, Kamala Harris, if you want Trump to win and Kamala Harris is running away with the race, it’s like, no, it’s pretty much locked in. I mean, after ten years, Trump has earned his 48% to 49% of the electorate. And I’m pretty sure they’re not going to abandon him because they didn’t after a conviction. Right. Yeah. That’s so dumb. And he’s up, like five points, right? I mean, it fluctuates a little bit, but about right now, is it up about in your polling? I have it. I have it in a two point race, and which is him doing eight points better in our polling than he was doing four years ago.

And the race did narrow. And I think it’s like we had Trump beating Biden by five. And then during August, it narrowed to about two points. We may see it open back up again, but at this point, 45 days to go with Trump leading by two. And it looks like the numbers are solid. And it looks like she hit a ceiling. Oh, by the way, literally the ceiling. If you go back and look at the moving average, it’s like the day that Kennedy endorsed him. I think that maybe took the wind out of some people’s sales.

You asked how much of an impact that had. I think Kennedy got Trump about half a point, maybe a point. But his announcement, I think, destroyed her momentum. There was the energy decrease. Yeah, they kind of made them feel bad. So, yes, I think you’re right. Thank you for everything that you’re doing. I just really appreciate people out there, you out there and your company out there with integrity trying to get to this, the answers to these questions and putting this out there for people, because we really, it’s a service to our country. It’s a service to humanity.

So thank you so much. Thank you. Really happy we got to talk about this.
[tr:tra].

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