Gold Silver Cant Be Stopped Midterms Wont Change the Precious Metals Explosion

➡ In this podcast, financial expert Michael Oliver discusses the role of silver in the financial reset. He shares his insights on the future of silver prices and the impact of government spending on the value of gold. Oliver also talks about the recurring cycle of economic booms and busts, and predicts a significant increase in the value of gold and silver. He warns listeners to be prepared for this change, as he believes it will happen quickly.
➡ The text discusses the relationship between the stock market, gold, and the housing market. It suggests that gold’s value is not necessarily tied to the stock market’s performance, and that it can still hold value even when the stock market crashes. The text also predicts a potential crisis in the housing market and commercial real estate, which could be more significant than the 2008 housing crisis. Lastly, it discusses the U.S. government’s increasing debt and the potential impact on the economy.
➡ The article discusses the current financial situation, highlighting the role of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury in managing inflation and government debt. It also mentions the potential impact of political changes on the economy, particularly on gold and silver. The author suggests that the current financial system is unstable and could lead to a significant crisis, which could affect various aspects of society, including employment and political parties. The article ends by discussing the state of gold and silver mining companies, suggesting that they may soon enter a phase of massive mergers and acquisitions due to their need to replenish their reserves.
➡ The article discusses the recent surge in the value of Newmont and Wheaton Precious Metals, two major mining companies. It suggests that large fund managers are shifting their investments from the stock market to these companies due to concerns about the stability of the market. The article also predicts that smaller mining companies will soon see a similar increase in value. It concludes by discussing the potential for a government bond crisis and the impact this could have on the value of money.
➡ The text discusses the potential for a significant increase in the value of silver and gold, as well as the mining industry. It suggests that silver, which has been undervalued compared to gold, could see a substantial rise in value. The text also predicts a possible surge in the value of gold, potentially reaching thousands of dollars. Lastly, it indicates that the mining industry could experience a boom, with the value of miners potentially tripling if gold’s value increases as predicted.
➡ The discussion revolves around the potential impact of economic factors on the value of gold, silver, and other assets. The speaker suggests that the average person may not realize the potential for asset value loss in stock market bubbles and bonds. They emphasize the importance of investing in assets like gold and silver that can protect and increase asset value during economic crises. The speaker also predicts a shift in the financial world, with metals potentially becoming institutionalized as backing for currencies.
➡ The value of paper money like yen, euro, and dollar is decreasing rapidly, which might lead us back to gold currency. This change will affect many countries, especially in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Michael Oliver’s work, which covers major asset categories, can be found at Olivermsa.com. Noble Gold, the podcast’s main financial sponsor, is currently offering a free 10-ounce silver bar for the remainder of August.

Hi everyone and welcome to the podcast. We have a very special guest, a new guest that we’ve wanted to have on for quite some time and I’ve alluded to him in our Noble Gold podcast. We have the one and only Mr. J. Michael Oliver joining us today from his home office to have a in depth discussion on the financial reset and particularly silver and how it plays a pivotal role in that, as you all know. So we’re very keen to get his insights and he was one of the first of many advocates to talk about silver at a particular price point and we’ll be curious to talk to him about that and where he sees silver for the rest of the year and beyond.

If you knew the podcast, please do like subscribe and share. It helps the channel grow and others to gain in the knowledge you’re currently being afforded. As we always do with our first time guests. I will read his bio. Thusly, Michael Oliver entered the financial service industry in 1975. On the future side with E.F. hutton in New York City in the 80s he began to develop his own momentum based method of technical analysis. In 1987 he technically anticipated and caught the crash of insider trading. It was then he decided to develop his own structural mentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the financial VP and head of Wachovia’s bank and trust department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full time technical research. He’s also the author of the New Libertarianism Anarcho Capitalism, A marriage of the concepts of Ayn Rand and Marie Rothbard RID written in 1972 and published in 2013. You can link to his website which we’ll leave in the description. The man who coined Anagarco capitalism at Michael Oliver at Michael, excuse me. @oliverusa.com and I am pleased and honored to welcome the one and only Mr.

Michael Oliver to the podcast. How are you doing? Good sir, I’m good. Good to be here, John. Yeah, it’s an honor, It’s a real privilege. We’ve, we’ve been anticipating this for quite some time. So I’m going to start at the top, Michael, with something that you coined and again, if I’m incorrect, please forgive and do correct me thusly. But you have been like us, a big believer. As you know, Noble Gold is one of the chief sponsors of the podcast and Micah Haynes senses regards. And Mr. B, one of our inside team members also regards you highly that you have been a big believer and proponent of silver going between 3 to 500 announced shortly, and between silver inherent value and everything in its obvious suppression.

I agree wholeheartedly with you. Additionally, the US Mint has also priced in gold at 19,600 an ounce and silver at 1500 an ounce, which I’m sure you’re aware. How soon would you see these prices taking effect once President Trump revalues gold and silver to their true value. I don’t think presidents can value gold. Reality values gold. And government is the prime driver of gold by default. Governments spend, spend, spend, and over the last century especially, they do it with fiat money. In other words, it’s not backed by anything. They just, they print it up, they do QEs, whatever they need to do to create a given effect.

And usually when they do that, they’re actually responding to something that’s breaking that they caused to be in the first place. In other words, they caused a boom. Therefore there’s a bust. And it’s this recurring cycle which is, you know, it’s basically recurring cycle, you know, 2000-2002-2007-2009, this one’s more protracted. It’s been since 2009 to the present a lot older bull market and stock talking stocks now. And if you look at a money supply chart, M2 or look at a fed funds rate chart, the short end of the market and go back, you know, 75 years, you can get it off the fed site in St.

Louis and you realize, oh, no wonder there was this bubble in stock market prices. They printed like crazy and it went somewhere. And it’s a constant cycle basically of it goes here and then that gets to be a bubble and then oops, it breaks and then they come in to try to save it, especially if it’s a stock market, because the stock market generates data points that they can then say, ah, that’s our mandate, such as unemployment. We think the stock market, especially US stock market Nikkei is another bubble example, are at their peaks and ready to turn down.

And when that happens, the money flow will become even more accentuated. In other words, gold will get more of that reward of the, the money that’s printed by the central banks, not just hours with BOJ, you know, ECB, etc. Go somewhere. It doesn’t just get burnt up, okay? A lot of people think that’s what happens. It doesn’t. It moves. And over history, if you look at stock market busts like 2000 to 2002, the.com collapse, or the mortgage private debt crisis collapsed 7 to 9, you’ll notice there were two alternatives. One was the orthodox one, T bonds.

Hey, safe as heck, you know, government paper. That’s good stuff. Okay, they went up, yields went down during those two stock market declines. So did gold. Gold rose all during those years along with T bonds. But now we have a unique situation because you know, we ask the question about where my price go. Well, the fundamentals now are far different than they ever were before and the technicals are as well. So that when you ask that question, we have decided no longer to predict how high it’s going to go except to say it will be jaw dropping and also there will be a point it will become emotional as well.

So far the advance in gold since the last low 20, $15,050 has been this kind of arm wrestling. Layered jolts up, then layers, then corrects, then jolts up. But it’s been ongoing upward curve with all this nuisance corrections along the way. But it hasn’t been emotional, it’s been layered. Very thoughtful, very timid. We argue that what’s on the other side of what we just saw over the last five to six months of this up down action, silver, gold and the miners is going to be ballistic. And we can get into some of the reasons why we think it’s going to be ballistic that everybody can grok onto, not just our technicals.

Anyway, that’s where I think we’re headed and I think we’re headed there pretty quickly. So if you’re not there you go miss it. I completely concur and thank you Michael. And that, that actually if you don’t mind, invites to me a sub question within the question. So you mentioned stock market, you mentioned the bubbles and sort of the predictive index. You know your history back in 87 where you predicted the crash is going to come in handy for this next question nearly 40 years later with all these super hyper bubbles, right, that I think you’re inferring.

Are you seeing a stock in a housing market crash, do you think around the same time we saw it in 08, around the September, October time frame or do you see by chance it could be. Yes. In other words, I hate to see that because I’m sick and tired of this October event. I do not think there is a necessity or necessarily will be a crash. I think you in fact crashes are not that common. There’s a lot of bear markets where you can see a massive decline in the market over a period. Usually stock market bears last a couple years, two and a half usually like let’s say 29.

There was a crash at the beginning, but then it rallied halfway back up to its highs. And President Hoover said, oh, everything’s fine, great in March or two, March of 1930, he said. And then came the decline, but it was a total grinding lower decline. And they took like 80% off the stock market, but it was never. There was a crash at the beginning, but then it had that rally and then it went down in an arm wrestling manner. Slow but consistently. Then look at 2007, or look at 2002, the bear market that ended the dot com bubble, okay, it peaked in 2000, NASDAQ 100, which is representative of the Internet bubble stuff, and went down.

And I don’t think there was ever a moment in that bear trend that you could label as a crash. And yet it lost 82%. NASDAQ 102 and a half years by crash. What do I mean? If you go back and look at 87, look at 29, look at that October crash in 2008. It was already a full year off the bull high. It’d been coming down, down, down, down, down. And finally it puked. 30 to 35% drop in a matter of a couple weeks. That’s a crash. Not a 20% drop, not a 15. Speed doesn’t count.

The issue is the dimension and then the speed. And I can only name, you know, a few over the decades that were crashes. And in fact the 2000-2002 event, there was never a crash. Let you, you lost 82% and S P lost 50%. So it’s not necessary. We have to have a crash quote, unquote. I know all the gold bulls, all they can remember is October 2008. They thought, ah, see, if the stock market crashes, gold’s got to crash too. The context was that the stock market had made a low in 2002 and slowly advanced to 2007.

So only a five year bull, it had only doubled. S and P only doubled from that low. And then the Fed actually cut rates in first time in a while, in September 2007 while the market was right near its high. And it was a surprise rate cut half a point three weeks later. The market had rallied for the next three weeks up into October. Oh boy. New all time new highs in the S and P. You should have heard the cheering, you know, all time new highs. Took out the 2000 high which had been 1550. Took out the early 2007 high which had been 1550.

It peaked at 1572. I think it was, it was Our target zone we predicted a year before. And you didn’t crash for a whole year, which the first year of decline had been significant, but no crash. And only reason gold joined in was not because margin call time. It’s because gold had already been in a dynamic bull market. It gone from a couple hundred bucks to a thousand by 2007. And it said, hey, I need a correction too. I’ll join in on the stock market. And as soon as that crash occurred, it burnt in everybody’s memory.

Now that’s like, that’s the, the ruling rule, okay? Gold collapsed in October with the stock market. Stock market continued down till March 2009 despite QE’s being instituted. And gold exploded back to its high. So anyway, I don’t think crash is an issue you need to worry about if you’re in gold stock market crash. That is correct. No, absolutely, you’re right. There’s a fundamental differentiation between, a demarcation, if you want, between metals in the market. And I think that’s what we’re talking about. The oil and the water separating or the wheat from the tares. This time we will see gold and silver skyrocket from momentum to its true value, separating from the old fiat system.

Like you’re saying. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Look, look at it again. Look at a M2 chart. You know, go back 50, 60 years, you get one from the Fed. It’s a beautiful upward curving bull market. It just looks lovely, you know, it’s going up, up and it goes, it’s straight up, like vertical. I love it. That’s what causes gold to move. The degradation in the money unit by which you’re measuring it. So when your granddad built the house, $4500, you grant your father 45,000 and now it’s 450,000 for median home. That reflects the degradation in the piece of paper we call money, which is not money.

It’s a piece of government. And it distorts reality, distorts our decisions. We make mistakes based on, quote, the value of the money and the real value of the money and also the cost of money. They manipulate the price of money. We don’t have socialism over the price of corn, but we have effectively government monopoly control over the price of money, you know, as if they allocate it properly. They’re wise men, you know, we know that. Anyway, so that’s, that’s the ultimate driver of gold. You know, all these intermittent things like, oh, a war. Oh, a war here.

Oh, the Fed wants to raise or not raise rates all These debatable issues, really the factor. And now that we have a government bond crisis, something we had expected six months ago and said this is about to come to the fore and now it’s come to the fore. They’re going to print, print, print. They have to. What are they gonna do? Let the house burn down? No, they’re going to come in and support those markets and they’re going to fabricate the money to do so, just like the Japanese did. We’re following their, their textbook again. Does it work? No, but it, it certainly puts fuel into real money, gold and silver.

Then we can get into the issue of why speed now? Anyway. Yeah, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll definitely. Yeah, we’ll definitely get there. It’s just an elephant we have. As you know. I have to eat a piece at a time. The next question I want to ask you, Michael, still intertwined with the stock market because I think they’re close cousins and I’m curious to get your, your perspective is the housing market because that too is in a super hyper bubble. So do you see in your experiential knowing. I lived through unfortunately the 2008 housing crisis when I was back east and I felt the pain of that.

I sense that that is going to be a sniffle compared to what’s coming with the housing market falling. The stock market, would you agree? Yeah, I think it’s much wider than that. Though we do watch a couple of ETFs to watch in that regard. RWR and VNQ, they’re both commercial real estate, not necessarily mortgage type, although they have some. But it’s, they are in price trading about where they were a decade ago. Okay. Stock market’s gone up. They tend to go up and down with the market, but they tend to go more sideways. So they’re really reflects the crisis that’s been building in debt and the long end debt related situation in commercial real estate in particular, which has recently gotten a boost because of the AI and the power generation stuff.

You know, that’s helped commercial real estate, but it’s only helped it hold steady. And that we analyze at msa not just the technicals of the tech part of the market, which is like, you know, the front end loaded part of the S and P and the nasdaq. But we also watch financial sector broadly like XLF which is a broad financial sector. ETF includes broker, dealers, banks, insurance companies, all kinds of things in, in that industry. And then we also watch KBE which is the banking E ETF larger Banks. So we’re watching commercial real estate financials and the banks and they’re technically not doing what the S P is doing.

When you look at a price chart, yeah the financials recently made a new high along with the S P. But when you do a relative performance study of the price of xlf, the financial sector versus the S P and go back years and plot each month, where did the XLF close as a percent of the price of the S P? And you end up with a chart. But the chart is this, we’re at multi decade lows. So while it’s been going up, it’s been going up anemically compared to the S P, meaning that sector is being less value.

Less value. And now they’re starting to nip some structures, what we call structures on momentum of the financial sector, the banking sector, commercial real estate that indicate, oh, this isn’t just the onset of further anemic upside compared to the S P, it’s actually a signal of the commencement of downside net price that can’t be ignored. You could think AI earnings and what the semis are doing, that’s all that matters. Well, dream on. Because these are debt laden and they’re much bigger than just the mortgage crisis of 2007-9. Because on top of their private debt that we have, you got the government debt, which is nuclear.

Yeah, yeah, I would agree actually it’s, it’s. Thank you, Michael. It’s funny that you should mention AI because that is actually one of the questions we had for you and it kind of dovetails off your last statement. The U.S. as you know, is running deficits near two and a half trillion and growing at the same time. Private capital has moved from deploying their earnings towards, as you said, AI infrastructure to debt, which is estimated at 750 billion this year as well as over a trillion next year. Many are calculating 5.5 trillion over the next coming years.

Yields are rising as the competition for capital is intensifying and that’s hurting US government more than private capital. She sort of alluded to. We saw some actions by the treasury which briefly lowered yields on the long end, but then it quickly rebounded and yields are now higher than before. Percent jumped in with that move. Was this action, in your opinion, a signal of some form of a yield curve control? And do you expect that type of action to expand as we move forward from here? Yeah, I, I suspect that’s what they’re doing and they always do it with smiles, whereas when they come out they make a Statement about, oh, we’re going to spend 4 billion on this for I might as well spend $100 supporting bonds to spend 4 billion.

It’s meaningless. It’s, it’s a nominal statement of oh, we’re going to support it. Well, you know, you need a lot more than 4 billion each auction anyway. But they smile when they say that, like nothing’s wrong. They’re panicked. This is something they’ve not had to face before. So they can talk all they want to about the economy. Strong unemployment, looks good, but the underlying issue, and it’s not a mandate of the Fed, for example, you know, their mandates are unemployment and inflation. So so called inflation, the way they define it, not printing money to support the government debt, but they’re going to have to and the treasury is going to have to spend money.

In fact, the treasury went over and bought Japanese yen as I understand why, because it’s collapsing along with their bond market. And in order to keep the Japanese from dumping our bonds, we need to give them money, etc. It’s a cycle of hey, I’m going down but I’ll help you too. You know, that’s too big. This isn’t just Japan anymore, It’s now the US. This is a nuclear event. This is not 2008. This is not the 2000, 2002 bear. No, this is not 87. In fact, 87 was really a corrective event. It wasn’t the start of a bear, it was the end of a decline.

This is something bigger and gold knows it. And if you don’t have treasuries as an alternative, the old Orthodox rule was 60% stocks, 40% bonds, or that, that’d be a balanced, safe portfolio, quote unquote. And so the CIO of Morgan Stanley is six months ago said, not working anymore. It’s 60, 20, 20, 20% being gold. Heck of a statement. Yeah, he should have said I had a higher percent than that. But that’s okay. At least he’s the right direction and he’s right. And this is not just going to go away with 4 billion here and 4 billion there.

We’re talking, you know, trillions. Okay? So this is a crisis that’s not going to be brushed away with smiles by the Fed and the public. Investment, investment public thinks, oh, that’s good, they’re in control. Oh boy, they’re not in control of js, okay? That’s the problem. And gold knows it anyway. And our technical work, by the way, on the recent sharp decline in silver and gold, that really if you look at the charts like a daily chart of silver gold, it was two days. So last trading day of January 1, trading day of February explained almost the entire percentage move.

There were three lows, the Feblo March low and one I think in June, marginally below each other in which they take out the prior low by just enough to say boo and then go back up this rally. There have been two rallies in between those cells. This one’s different. This will take hold, meaning continue. That’s our assessment. Once that occurs, parabolic engages. Yeah, I’m sorry to mean interrupt. I, I completely concur with you because I, I saw what I saw, Michael. And it seems like you agree is January. February was a warning shock for the public of what’s coming in a much greater sense.

You’re absolutely right about that. Thank you for that. The next question is, we don’t like to get political, but it’s hard to talk about money and not talk about politics. They always seem to intertwine in some way. If the House or Senate should change hands in the upcoming November midterms, what impact do you think that will have for gold and silver? I don’t think it has much except to say that it’s indicative of what’s going on. Meaning this monetary situation, the debt situation with governments is so huge that its wave effects will hit a lot of things.

For instance, what happened to the average guy back in 2007, 8 and 9, he wasn’t even in the stock market. Let’s say he got unemployed or his wife got unemployed, or he was retired and had to go back to work right now. So many things that we take as forever’s institutions. Oh, it’s always been there. No it hasn’t. Federal Reserve’s only been there for 100 and some years. You know, one super long human lifetime. Central banks of, you know, Japan, eu, et cetera. Fiat money hasn’t always been the case. Gold is often, you know, usually been the backing of money or the money itself.

So we entered a new realm a long human lifetime ago that we thought we could play games with paper. You know, a government could fund itself, control interest rates from above because they’re wiser than we are and all that stuff. It’ll have, it’ll have consequences in areas that aren’t even quote market related, like unemployment for example. That, that’ll change. But that’s, that’s typical, you know, that’s typical. But there’s other things that. For example, will there be a Fed in a year or two if we Go through a crisis like we think is going to occur. Collapse in paper assets, rise in monetary metals, which we’re not linked to in the U.S.

chinese are, but we’re not. Will, you know, will the Fed, will there be the Fed? All kinds of things that we take for granted. How about political parties? We’re so used to being a two party system which really doesn’t go back to the beginning of the country by the way, that we think, oh, that’s a forever. Right now the two parties are so fragmented. You know, Democrats are either moderate or socialist. Therefore neither one of those components could be a majority party anymore in terms of getting popular vote. And nor can the Republicans. Trump is taken away the Reagan esque Barry Goldwater elements of the party.

And if you’re not a Trumper, then you know, so those folks are leaving, retiring from office. They don’t want to have anything to do with him. Tucker Carlson, for example, and some other talking heads have said, I’m out of here, I shouldn’t have endorsed him. You have total fragmentation in the Republican Party. So here’s two things that we thought are major permanent institutions. They’re not. So yeah, one of them is going to win the off year, probably the Democrats, but I don’t care which direction they go, whether they go radical socialist or not. Why not just go ahead and burn it all down? Go ahead, go radical socialist.

Let’s start fresh. Because this nuclear event, when it occurs, will have so much repercussions. The things we take for granted won’t be there. Including the political parties as we know them. There will be probably the ascension of minority parties that have some power, like Europe. You know, we might have a couple big parties, but they need the support from a third party to get elected. You know, you get my point. I do, yeah. Yeah. These are the kind of things that are going on. That’s what I’m saying. No, it’s, it’s a good overall assessment and almost.

Michael, as I’m listening to, what I’m hearing you say is essentially precious metals are politically agnostic. They don’t care. It’s like the Terminator. They’re just going to keep moving forward regardless. It can’t be stopped at this point. Sure, yeah. As long as government keeps printing money and accelerates, especially with the given conditions. Now, gold, lucid and silver. Yeah, silver. They both know it. You’re right. And, and just real bit before I go forward, I just want to go back and piggyback off what you were sharing about Japan and the bond market. AKA us. Right. It’s really ultimately an east west reset that we’re seeing I think and it’s, it’s making its way over so it’s fascinating to watch it play out.

So thank you for your insight. Through your insights Michael. The gold producers currently have an incredible set of balance sheets as you know. Some of these. Oh yes, oh yes. Some of these mining companies have an all in sustaining costs of something in the range of 1500 plus where you’ve got about 4600. It was 4700 earlier this week. Gold prices, you know, margins are an all time high. You mentioned printing money. Many of these companies can become debt free within a couple of quarters but on the flip side they have declining reserves and they don’t have a big reserve pipeline needed in the scenario that we face currently as you mentioned with the central bank buying and everything else.

So based on their need for stocking the reserves, are you expecting the next phase to include a massive M A cycle? You mean in the miners we’re talking? Yes sir, yeah. Yes, I tend to think that would happen, yes, definitely. Something very interesting just happened in the last three weeks, four weeks after that last low in June 3rd low, you know, bank bang, little marginally below the Feblo. Each one they couldn’t sustain on the downside they popped up and then with 4, 600 gold. Now as we were in the 3009 hundreds coming up off that low three and a half four weeks ago almost now we put out a signal saying that’s it, buy it, buy silver.

Silver was in the upper 50s then. Gold was just above 4,000 and we started up. And if you watch gold and silver they’re like halfway back to their highs or something. But if you look at the miners, GDX for example, the gold mining ETF and sil, the silver miner etf, they’re back almost to their highs. Not quite like their highs were like 110 each and they’re trading around 100 right now. So they’re, they, you know if, if, if gold looked like them it, gold would be about 5,200 right now. Okay, what happened there? But then also look at this, look at Newmont and look at Wheaton Precious Metals biggest gold miner company and the biggest silver mining company, they went back to their highs in a heartbeat.

You look at the daily price action, you say what the heck happened? Gold didn’t do that yet. Newmont made a new high close and Wheaton Precious Metals is back to its high bam. Literally in. You could take the last Three or four weeks and find about six days. That explain the entire explosion. What happened there. It wasn’t gold exploding gold was strong. I think I argue, and I’ve talked to some big asset managers about this, that what you see there, and you were talking about M and A. Okay. Is big asset managers, fund managers, not the average Joe, but experienced large fund managers said okay, if Treasuries are not part of the orthodox portfolio and I want to shift some money out of the stock market because I’m just getting nervous.

I’m not bearish on stocks, but I’m gonna move 5 or 10% over somewhere else. What do you do? You’re gonna buy juniors? No, large asset managers won’t play with that stuff. They’ll buy the biggies. So all of a sudden the two big blue chips went parabolic, which tells me that you saw the initial wave of large wise asset managers saying I’m on in there. No, I’m not gonna buy gold futures or calls or silver or Silver Bullion ETFs. I’m gonna buy miners. They have good earnings, nice dividends, et cetera, et cetera. They didn’t buy the juniors.

And I think that’s what just occurred in those two main blue chip stocks is that we’re talking about flows of money. Is the initial flow of money by big funds into a modest position anyway in the miners. And of course because of the size of the mining sector, dollar asset size, it doesn’t take much to turn it into a wet bar of soap. Now we argue what’s about to happen next is that the, the lesser miners are about to go parabolic. We can, I can talk about the reasons for that. Want to? Sure. Yeah. Well, we’ll catch.

Yeah, we’ll, we’ll certainly do that towards the end here. I just have a couple of other key questions for you, if you don’t mind, Michael. Is the next one being. Is can coordinated. We were talking about the yen earlier, so just I’m circling back to that. Can coordinated yen intervention successfully prevent foreign holders from dumping U.S. treasuries? And does that relative currency stabilization temper safe haven demand for precious metals? No, I think anything you’re talking about there, it’s a house burning down, big houses burning down and they’re spraying around the garden area. Okay. They’re not going to stop the fire.

It’s fundamentally too big. They’ve made their mistake. It’s accumulated and accumulated decade by decade. It’s gotten worse, worse, worse. And like Jamie Dimon said, you know, a couple months ago. You know, we now have a government bond crisis. We’re going to have to deal with it. And he wasn’t talking. Ten years from now that game is, is over. And, and other folks, Stanley Druckenmiller has ridiculed what Bessant said the other day. 4 billion. You know, he didn’t use my joke of 100 bucks but you know, it’s, it’s about that, it’s trivial, you know. And Elon Musk even put out a statement recently saying no, this, this crisis is so big they’re going bankrupt.

Well, I don’t know if the government’s going to bankrupt, but I’ll tell you one thing they’re going to do. They’re going to destroy the money units in the process of trying to put out their fire to keep themselves from going, quote, bankrupt. But that which you get by lending money to them and then you get it back is going to be a lot less than what you gave them. Given the speed of the monetary process that will be engaged. It is already beginning. In fact, the Fed started buying bonds in November. Williams, the head of New York Fed said so in November and he said they’re doing it to provide quote, liquidity.

Well, it didn’t support the market because yields went up in the T bond futures that we monitor continued down since, since last November and made last month’s close on T bond futures was the lowest monthly close in 25 years, meaning yields at high of 25 years. They don’t control that end of the market very well. And in order for them to even try to support the yen, to help the bonds, et cetera, the cycle would require such monetary aggressiveness that that’s what gold knows, there’s no way around it. So that’s the world we live in. So I don’t think any, any, any steps they take to defend this or that is going to work.

It might delay things and frankly I don’t want to be short T bonds. We call for their downside to break through the multi year lows. Several months ago back in April we said okay, this bond decline is now going to start to break below the obvious price lows or yield highs. Right? And, but I don’t want to be short that market. The reason being they’re going to come in guns ablazing here and there and I don’t want to be short, have them ram it to me, you know, for one solid week upside and then suddenly it melts back down again.

You know, it’s a process of that like recently Everybody thought about oh, the upticks in the bonds or the drop in the yields because the Fed or the treasury said this. And then as we speak today, for example, it was initial rally in all the markets, including bonds. Bonds are back down on the day. They’re too big. You can’t play with them. They’re monstrous size. Even government can’t play with them. They created the monster, now the monster’s coming home. Anyway. That is a crisis that will make the coming year look like no other year in markets in a long, long time.

Agree. It’s just a narrative. It goes back to your thesis about it’s an era of inevitability with what’s happening. Yes. As you were describing the bond market a second ago. The picture I had, it was almost like when you’re trying to, if you got a flat and your tire, you know, outside of the road. Yeah, yeah. And you try to pump it up but you don’t know there’s a leak and, and every time you up it just goes back down. Yeah. It didn’t solve the problem. A good metaphor. Very good. Thank you. And that’s kind of what I visualize.

So here’s the next question. And Michael, I would, I would submit, and I’m really curious to get your take. I would submit that this is probably the bullseye of the, the entire podcast question. It all comes down to this. And you, you stated it in the beginning of this with your as I mean thesis that this is not about price because it’s going to be astronomical, as you said, jaw dropping even, I’ll say that. But it’s about speed and I agree with you. So here’s the question. What. And again, you don’t have crystal ball, I understand that.

But you have a lot of experience, which is one of the many reasons we wanted you here. In your experience, and we know history repeats itself. You talked about October and we would not like to see that. But it all points in that direction at present. What kind of speed do you see? Metals accelerating and the bond market, the treasury bond market, are we going to lose 10% this year or is that going to delay to next year? I don’t know about the bond rise in yields to speed because I know they’re going to intervene. But it’s the intervention that is what will drive the monetary metals, not whether the bonds go up or down.

They’re not going to change the major trend in the bonds. All they can do is slow it and make it zigzaggy. So. And the only way to do that is doing what they’ve been doing already, buying them or trying to support the Jap, help the Japanese ship from sinking so our ship doesn’t sink in coincidence because they’re dumping the hell out of our bonds. You know, so it’s, it’s this lovely vicious cycle of error on error on error mounted over decades and then suddenly reality hits speed. Okay, argument for silver, forget that. My technicals, our technical analysis, which is very long term and momentum based, not looking at simple price charts.

The price is silver at 50 bucks. In 1980, where was gold? 850. Gold had gone from 103.76 to 850 in 1980. Silver went to 50, then gold backed up. Then in 2001 and 2 bottomed at 200 and something went to 1920 by 2011. Where was silver in 2011? 50 still at the same high it was in 1980. Gold was 1900 versus had been 8, 800 1980. Okay, then you pull back again. Now gold’s 4600 and silver is a mere what trading right now? 17 bucks above its 50 year high. Okay, now look at copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, steel, cash prices go back to the 1980s and see where they were right now they’re all trading about four to six times higher than where they were then.

No, they’re not exploding. It’s just been a laborious, constant layered upside process in pricing. Where silver has been what boxed in at 50 bucks and only in November last year did it break out and say oh, I’m out of here. Okay. This initial took a breath, finally, you know, so reality is coming. That wasn’t the end of something. That was the statement that oh, I just broke out of prison. Okay. And now you pull back. The doubters came in and said oh, that was too much to look at. Daily charts of course. And spooked by the strength, they don’t see the big context.

The put these metals on logarithmic scale charts, for example and if you put copper on one, go back to 1980, you’ll see it’s like you know, a certain ratio dimension in these moves. Not just four times, but you could see it on a log chart. It’s equal moves. If silver will merely to double its range that it had for 50 years, 1980 through recently 45 years. You have 50 bucks at the high twice and you had lows around five bucks. Okay, what’s that? That’s a tenfold dimension. You buy silver 50, it goes to 10. Well that’s 50.

That’s great. It’s tenfold. Okay. But then it came back down and stayed in the range. Okay. If you take it out of the logarithmic ratio scale chart, which most people can do on their own computer, if they change the increment of the chart, put it logarithmic and then measure that dimension and add it to the top of the range, you come up with 500 on a simple oh ratio scale. Had a box lived in it for years. I’m going to go up the same dimension of the box, by the way. If you go to 500, you’d only then be finally matching what these other metals have done.

Okay. But so you know, that’s where we came up with the 3 to 500. One of the many reasons. But frankly I’m not at all sure of that because there’s other things going on. Like silver is vastly undervalued to gold, just like the miners are. And that’s a big issue right now. The miners will talk about that. But silver in 1980 was 6 and a half percent of the price of gold. If you took an ounce of silver, divided it out to Gold was 6 and a half percent when silver was 80 for the first time.

And then in 2011 when it came back up to 50, same old price level. But the spread between Silver Gold was 3.1%. So even then it was only half as much value to gold as it was in 1980. And right now silver is about 1.6% of the price of gold. What’s going on there? So silver broke out of its range. Don’t be shocked if silver at least challenges those old highs like get over 3% which means a doubling in the current value of silver for 1.6. We go over 3. It’s a doubling in the relative value.

If we go to six and a half now again, that’s not the percent gain in silver, that’s the percent gain in silver versus gold. And gold’s not going to stand still while silver goes up. Right. It’s a goal is going to be going up too. And then we think about where’s gold going. Let’s think about that then. Well, two bull markets before 1976 to 1980, 2002 to 2011 were eight fold dimensions, bare low. You made eight times your money to the bull high. Our bare low is 1050. Okay. Eightfold is in eight to nine thousand dollars.

Are we there? No, we’re not even matching the two priorities. Ho hum. Bull markets where they didn’t even have a government bond crisis to help fuel them. Now we have this huge nuclear event and gold still only half as much up off its last bare low as it was in those two prior bull markets. So let’s say gold just goes to 8 to 9,000, which I don’t think it’s going to stop there, but let’s say it does another ho hum move Eightfold. By the way, JP Morgan some months ago came out with a, I think it was a fundamental prediction of 9200 or something.

But anyway, as gold goes to 8000 and silver, silver says okay, not only am I going to go up while you’re going up, but I’m going to go up more because my spread’s broken out. I’m now in a bull trend versus gold. I’m gonna go to 6%. Well you, you do the math on these things and you keep coming up with numbers well up in the hundreds. And what if gold doesn’t stop at 8,000? What if you go into a major, what, white knuckle flight and gold goes to 10, 20,000, they’ll be shocked, you know, okay, and we’re, I don’t know where silver’s going to be.

A thousand dollars. I’m not going to predict it, but I am going to say this process is highly likely to be very speedy because these events are not. They’ve already been building up like a volcano. They’re not going to just suddenly creep out there and take 10 more years to fulfill themselves or to erase the errors of the prior decades through the crisis. The monetary metals will explode during this. Why? Because once you bust the stock market even just 10, 20% off the high, the average Joe out there is going to be panicked. It’s the only thing he’s got to smile about is I’m up on the year in my stock portfolio.

You take 10, 20% away from him and he frowns and suddenly unemployment starts to get worse. Maybe his wife gets laid off and all of a sudden things start to change quickly. Money flows. So what we see with the, the big two miners recently, you know, white knuckle flight, you’re likely to see with the miners because they’re, pardon me for laboring on here. No, you’re fine since the break in 2000. Let’s do it this way. XAU index is the Gold and silver miners index in Philadelphia. It’s been around since the 1980s. So it’s got a history.

In the 1980s, 90s, 2000 through 2008, it lived in a range where if you divided XAU into an Ounce of gold. It was either side of 25% of an ounce of gold. Sometimes it got up to 35% of an ounce of gold. Lows were 18% but it was in the range and about the middle of that range was 25% divide xa. It broke down in 2008. It collapsed through 2015 coincident with the bear market and gold at that time the miners went down more to 4%. Okay, think about this. An industry that used to hold its value relative to that which it produces at 25% on average goes to 4%.

Do you think it’s going to go to zero? I mean what, it’s insane. Almost. So what happened since then over the last dozen years? Actually you can go back to 13 and see it’s in this range. Most of the lows were 5%. There was one at 4, but let’s call it 5%. And all the highs were about 8 and a half percent in this range. When you plot that, that chart compared to the old reality up there at 25%. Okay, we’re breaking out above that range now. We got one day left in the month and we’re well about above where you need to close the month to blow out of this 13 year, 12 year wide.

Perfect little basing rectangle. What that spread says to us is that one miners are going to explode versus gold. Because their next resistance level, if you looked at that technical chart and treated it like a price chart is 18%. That’s a doubling in the current value of the miners to gold. And they won’t just double in gold. Stand still. If gold went from 4, 600 to 8,000 and then you, you’d triple the miners. In other words your net price, not just you’ll double them versus gold but they’ll be going up in price even more. The miners breaking out above that base is a major final last buy signal for anybody who wants to get into gold.

And it’s occurring now, this month. So if you’re not in gold, that signal, which we publish that chart in our reports each weekend, nobody else does, I don’t think that is a table pounder and that says speed is about to occur. So we’re, we’re in the eye of the storm. We’re about, yeah, we’re no longer going to be this doldrum layered gold advance. You know, you get good double digit percent drops and then you take you know, two years to come out of there or something like 2000-20, 20, 23 type thing. Instead this is quick over back up and this time when you go to the new high, don’t expect any serious corrections.

And I think that the much of the surge that comes will in hindsight have occurred within probably the first six months of that surge. So between now and February. Yeah, the early next year, I think you break out on that spread, miners versus gold, which I think is more important than even looking at the price of gold and silver. You break that spread out, it’s a table pounder because nobody’s looking at it, but it’s so massive and so clear that it says something just happened. Much like when you look at a Newmont chart and say something must have just happened.

What happened there? Or wheat and precious metals, how come they went to their highs in a handful of days? What’s going on here? There’s no headline. Well, there is. It’s been building for decades. So that’s where I think we are in history. Yeah, I think you’re absolutely right. Thank you, Michael, for that cogent analysis in detail. As you were sharing. I. I have one more key question, but before that I have two sub questions that are obviously germane to this whole discussion. You talked about the average person with 401k who’s working and the ramifications of that and unemployment.

And we know John Rich has done a very. Bill Holter’s talked about on our podcast in the past about. John Rich has the true book about the true rate of unemployment and inflation and all that, which I, I read it a few times. It’s a fascinating read it very illuminating on the illusion versus reality. But yeah, two questions. One, what happens in your historical perspective? Because you know, the banks try to paper it down. Silver specifically. Right. Even in gold to an extent, but especially silver. Oh, what happened? Right. What happens when silver gets this time above 75? Because that seems to be the demarcation line.

Is it gonna in your estimation now rocket forward? I, I think there could be a. If, if I had to predict the level where you’d actually get it, maybe a down week, you know. Oh, down week. Oh, it’s all over, you know. Right. It might be in the closer to the upper 70s or 80 area. If you look at a price chart. Just go stupid and look at a price chart like everybody does. You’ll see that after the high in January in the collapse, there were a couple rally highs that got above 90. That’s where they stopped, you know, 90 plus 93, 91, whatever.

All around 90s where they stopped. So it’s. I think that the average Joe, the guy looks at the price chart will suddenly wake up when you get silver like 95 or something, he’ll realize, hey, that just took out those price highs that occurred after those other rallies. Now our momentum works is that’s going to happen even though, you know, price isn’t above there now. But our momentum works is. No, you just begun a rally that will stay, but there could be a wobble point. And I don’t want to stress this too much because we suggested this to our subscribers a couple weeks ago.

And then I thought about it. I said, no, I don’t want to because too many people are nervous and want to get out. You know, oh, if we’re going to wobble, I’m going to take some profits. Well, this thing’s too big to take profits. If we’re right, and I think we are, and a lot of other people are now coming to agree that something’s happening here big. You don’t want to get out of this beast because if you don’t get back in, it could change your life because there’s very few assets in the world that are going to protect your asset value and increase it when these events occur.

You’re going to lose asset value rapidly in stock market bubbles. You don’t want to own T bond, so what are you left with? Okay, you don’t want to get in, fine, missed it. If you get out prematurely, you better be surgically correct and getting back in quickly. And I don’t think that’s worth the effort and the to do that. Yeah, I completely agree. I’m our strategy, not financial advisors, not financial advice. Our audiences huddle and stack. Yeah, those who have silver stacked for decades know this all too well. So the other question before the last one, Michael, on the the second part is you talked about 401ks and the importance of that illusion dwindling.

What about people who are retired with pensions? Doesn’t that fall under the same bucket? Yeah, well, see, they get nominal money and. But the value of that money decreases. You know, like if you just look at the M2 chart and go back and pick a decade here to there, another decade here to there, you get about a 90% increase in the money supply every decade. I mean, this is. That’s huge in itself. That’s why the 4540 5450,000 for homes. It’s merely reflective of that. And consider this, everybody. Oh, look what the S and P has done.

Oh, it’s so great. You go back to 2000 by quarter of a century where it was at dotcom highs 1550. And do see where the S and P is now. And then look at an M2 chart. And all you’ve done is basically match the decay in the money unit. You’ve not made real value, you’ve increased your nominal price, but so have a lot of things. Price of a home, everything, gasoline, etc. Etc. So have you really made money? Have you really increased your assets? No, it’s all paper nominal. It’s a junior Weimar Republic. Okay. We’re not running around yet carrying money in bundles in our arms.

Okay, but. Or in. You get the point. But it is a variation thereof and it’s created errors and it’s not just us, it’s the Japanese, it’s the Europeans, it’s the British. So it’s, it’s huge. And a guy on pension is stuck with a nominal return on his money. I feel sorry for him. Maybe he’s got some gold hoarding in, in his back closet or something, you know, hopefully because at least that way he can hold value. But two actually increase it if he acts soon, not six months from now. Right now. Okay, yeah. In other words, we break that spread out of gold miners versus gold.

And we’ve been arguing this for a couple years, we’ve been watching that spread, that valuation level. When you break that out and we’re breaking out of a 13 year wide technical base that smack you in the face. If you looked at the chart you’d say golly gee, I gotta buy that. Okay. Reality is going to change at that point because that will indicate that miners are beating gold to catch up to the old reality that they used to have. But what does that mean? It means asset flow suddenly going into this little teeny sector. What causes the asset flow? People changing their mind about owning stocks, changing their mind about bonds.

And what do you go to? Yep. Yeah, absolutely right. Thank you so much for that last question for today, Michael, because I want respect to time the audience this time, as always. Does expanding long term treasury buybacks signal fiat debasement that would permanently accelerate gold and silver bull runs? Well, I don’t think it’ll permanently do it because I think the crisis that will occur because of this printing money to support the bonds, which is ultimately the crude way to say it, but that’s what we’re talking about. The various manners. They’ll come up with some new QE3 or whatever they call, I don’t know, it’s a status game, it’s ongoing, but now it’s at a crisis and they’re sitting on it.

The. I’m sorry, what was the question again? The no, that’s fine. The does, does expanding long term treasury. No, I, I think that when the gold has this crisis move, you know, pardon me for getting off track there and silver, I think what you’re going to do is go to a new reality quickly. And that new reality, oh yeah, you’ll have sell offs but you’ll be in some price reality that you didn’t think we could get to. But actually when you measure it versus M2, silver will finally have caught up to M2 and beat it. Gold is already beating M2 by the way.

It’s doing better than the s P for 25 years. People don’t realize that, but once we get there, things are going to change. Like probably those metals will be institutionalized as backing for currencies. You know, the Chinese are already doing it and I think the Indians are thinking about it. So. But the point is that once this does occur, it’s not going to like, oh, it’s going to collapse again and have another big bear. Yeah, you might get a pullback but you’ll be going to be in a new world. So you know, catching the move is the issue so that your assets are protected during this crisis period and you actually end up making money as well.

But I don’t, I don’t think you, it’s a, it’s an end of something. I think at the end of something means a new world, literally a new type of financial world will be forced upon even the doubting countries because the reality will be so dark and the public upheaval, political upheaval, even if you’re talking about the parties a minute ago, you know, reality anymore institutionals come institutions coming into question about, hey, you know, I don’t know if central banks really work, you know, and a realization finally why it took so long, I don’t know. But this piece of paper in my wallet is in fact I got three of them hanging on the wall behind me.

I’ve got a yen euro and yen euro and the dollar worthless little pieces of paper that depreciate day by day, month by month and now at accelerated pace that will cause a change in things we call reality. And so when gold and silver get up there again, don’t be shocked that finally even the west realizes, oh, maybe we need to go back to gold currency. Who knew? Oh wow. I didn’t mean to interrupt, Michael. I’m sorry, I was just very energetic about your point. But yes, it will go into the yen and the ruble, but also many other countries around the world, particularly in the Middle east and Southeast Asia, as you know as well, it’s going to have a systemic effect.

So this has been a great conversation. I really appreciate it. Michael, as we wrap things up as we always do with our guests is hopefully you’ll come back again. We’d love to have you if you would be so gracious. Please let the people know where can they find your work and last thoughts you have for the audience. Olivermsa.com For Momentum Structural Analysis Oliver MSA we explain our unorthodox methodology there in fairly clear terms and you can request some samples, you could see some on the site, but you can request we sent you some recent reports and we cover all four of the major asset categories, the debt markets, foreign exchange, stock markets, not just US and commodities, especially the monetary metals because they, they’re icebergs hitting each other now.

You know, some are going to go down, some are going to go up, but they, they impact each other. So it’s very important to not just look at gold like that. Absolutely. And we, I agree. We will leave your link in the description for people to peruse your work, of course, and check out the work that we’ve known you’ve done for quite some time. And folks, as you know, Noble Gold is our chief financial sponsor for the podcast. Mike has told you himself there’s going to come, excuse me, a certain point in time which we can’t.

He can’t guarantee supply. So as Michael has inferred, price is less the issue and it’s more about speed. It doesn’t matter what it costs if you can’t get it in the first place. We saw what happened with COVID back in 2020 with toilet paper and paper towels and what was done there with manipulation. Imagine what this is going to look like now. So please do visit the link there. Noblegoldinvestments.com in the description forward slash JD Metals is my promo code. You can contact Micah directly. Michael ira.com for the remainder of August. They are giving away a free 10 ounce bar of silver.

Commemorate the country’s 250th anniversary. 9999 pure. So whether you’re looking to get cash, excuse me, metals from cash or cash purchase or you want to convert 401k annuity, IRA, etc. Pension like we talked about with Michael, they have the ability to help you. No cost, no obligation, a lot of education and guidance. Noble has been rated by Money Metals as one of the top two companies with which to work in these arenas, and we certainly work with them. I purchased from them as well. So please do visit that link in the description. Michael Oliver, thank you for joining us, sir.

We appreciate your time on this Friday. Have a blessed rest of your weekend and we hope to see you again shortly. Thank you. John thank you. Michael. Sam.
[tr:tra].