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Summary
Transcript
And I’m going to read you some of these comments, okay? Exxon SVP Neil Chapman warned at the bone screen conference that global end employees are approaching unheard of lows, and models show Brent crude could spike to $150,000 to $160 once the operational floor is reached. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said the market’s shock absorbers have been steadily drawn down and expect direct upward pressure on physical prices in June and July. Goldman Sachs also jumped in there and said similar things. J.P. Morgan said OECD commercial stocks could fall to operational stress levels by June and then hit the global operational floor by September.
Now, the global operational floor is like, what’s that text saying? He says his point in this was that they will have to open the straight then because otherwise the whole world gave him the Mad Max. If the straight remains closed, assuming demand destruction, stabilized at 5.5, anyway, he goes on to talk about it, and those things have happened. Chevron again, CEO Mike Wirth. Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see these pressures, price pressures flow through more directly to the physical prices, and there’s more upwards pressure than I would expect if we get into June and certainly into July.
Now, another guy who is the chief executive of ADNOC, Sultan Al Jabbar, said at the Atlantic Council event on May 21st that even if they opened up the straight right now, it will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-confident levels. So we’re hurting. The comment here on zero, or not comment, the article continues. It says, but if Chevron was pessimistic, the company’s biggest domestic competitor, Exxon, was downright apocalyptic, speaking at the same bone screen conference. Exxon, SVP, Neil Chapman had some truly horrifying remarks. I’m going to redo these two, and they really are.
Commercial inventory is a crude oil of liquids, think petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel. They’re all run down. You can model this. We’ve modeled this. I think a lot of people in the industry have modeled this, so this apparently is very, very well known. We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean really, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Oh, my God. Okay, we’re going to debate whether it’s two weeks or three weeks. Oh, my gosh. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see the price shoot up.
A model would say, David Brent would shoot up, once you get to that really low inventory level, say maybe to 150 to 160 barrel. The model would tell you that, and then what happens is when you get the price to a certain level, you know, demand destruction kicks in, but actually the prices get too high and it becomes unaffordable for everybody. Now, Chapman then connected all the other things that we were talking about here, and he says, I think crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 a barrel for the last six weeks or so has really been mitigated by the running down of inventories and it can’t last forever.
And until the war in Iran truly ends and the freight returns to normal transit, global inventories will continue to drain by about 10 to 14 million barrels per day, which is why when the operational floor is reached in less than three months, the resulting parabolic, so now he’s going to have the move in two to three weeks. That’s the stress level. And then he’s saying when you get to this in September where there’s like absolutely nothing in there and everything has to shut down operationally, he said the resulting move in oil will be just as memorable as when it plunged deep into the negative territory in April 2020 when traders were paying any amount to take physical off the hand.
It’ll be just like that, but only in reverse. He’s saying that the move will be parabolic. All right, so the bottom line from all of this is is sometime within the next two, three, hmm, let’s give them a week, maybe four weeks, the price of oil is going to spike up dramatically. That means that your gas is going to spike up. That means everything else, and we’re going to have all those follow-on consequences. So is the light going to go out? No. Is it going to be the end of the world when we know it? No, but you’re going to be able to see, that’s like a huge domino falling down, and then you’ll see all the other dominoes going after that.
And you can be absolutely guaranteed. We already have farmers who are completely stressed over the price of diesel and the price of fertilizer. There is nothing going to be planted, very little is going to be planted this year. So you absolutely need to be preparing right now for famine, and you need to be preparing for whatever mobility, get a bicycle, you know? So you know all the things to do to prep. I just wanted to bring this up to you, because we have a point here. We have a red flag, we have an absolute, like we have all these oil executives telling us this is going to be happening in two to three weeks, that we are going to see a ramp up in the cost of energy.
You’ve got a small window of opportunity to take advantage of it. If you’ve got a reluctant spouse, or you’ve got family that thinks you’re nuts, show them this article. There’s nothing you can argue with here. This is like, and then, you know, we’ll be seeing what happens in a couple of weeks, right? All right, this is more interesting. I’ll get back to our regular schedule tomorrow, but I feel that this is so important to get out there, because these guys are telling us, two to three weeks, the price is going to go up dramatically.
So prepare accordingly. You know, our great grandparents and a lot of people live without ever having oil or gas or electricity, right? We’re not there, and we’re built on for other systems, but we are human beings, and we can adapt. And having a bit of foreknowledge, which is what this article gives us, gives you a huge advantage. So take it and use it. [tr:trw].
